Assets under Management
Total (EUR): 36 557
Valuation per Segment
Physical assets: 11 000
Digital assets: 3 250
Liquid assets: 22 307
Total (EUR): 26 657
Q2/21 (EUR): -1 060
Download the full trading history (liquid assets only)
50% Indices: China, Europe
30% Metals: Gold, Silver
Invests no more than 150% of the principal (leverage < 2:1).
Value at Risk (Var) on open positions average 2%.
Macro with focus on demographic and capital flow events
The current main view and scenario is:
hyperinflation risks in the US (and USD drop)
slow and steady - but consistent - inflation trend in Europe
the shift in economic power and leadership from West to East
In the Markets
Despite the facts that the markets profited from the FOMC meeting and narrative to re-adjust its pricing at short term, deep fundamentals of the situation, and dynamic remain unchanged. Hence, we still play:
USD to eventually extend gains to 95, then resume downtrend to 89/83
US markets to remain stable, with an upside risk
EUR markets to remain stable, with a downside risk
ASIAN markets to remain volatile but stable, in consolidation of 2020 growth
COMMODITIES slowly and gradually trading higher
Indices > Long China A50 x Short EuroStoxx 50 (5:2 spread)
Metals > Long Gold + Long Silver (50/50)
Notes from the desk
As we have few visibility on stocks at short term, from a global perspective;
And, as we don't believe in a sharp prise on Metals, but more in a slow and hectic path. Our exposure reflects the context: Balanced across stocks and metals, with no leverage and cash available... just in case!
On Stocks, we built size between 16-17K on China A50 to play a 16-18K trading range, but truly not convinced about a possible new uptrend immediately. The risk of a deeper retracement - or at least a longer stabilization phase - as both the US and EUR markets could also need a pause now, is bigger than the 10% gain we can expect from a 18K to 20K move on China. For this reasons, the portfolio remains relatively "under-invested" in this segment. The size of the short leg (Stoxx50) has increased a bit.
On Metals, Now fully directional. Exposure proportionally split.
On USD, if we believe that the dynamic remains unchanged, post-FOMC reaction and sudden price adjustments forced us to adjust our exposure accordingly. We will look closely at the USD evolution in the short term, as it is THE leading indicator in the current context.
On Cryptos, Sold all ETH, all XRP of the first wave. Bought some XRP, MLN, POLY, during the "krach" and still have some of them in portfolio. Almost flat in this segment. We are not going to increase size for now.
Future will tell...